Collateral

Ακολουθεί απόσπασμα απο μια ενδιαφέρουσα ανάλυση του Julian D. W. Phillips. Θα βρείτε ολόκληρο το κείμενο εδώ

“Last week, the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs agreed to allow central counterparties to accept gold as collateral. Once ratified, we would see gold redefined as a highly liquid asset under the Capital Requirements IV Directive, due in June from the European Commission. This is not the first time gold has been accepted as collateral. Late in 2010 ICE Clear Europe, a leading European derivatives clearing house became the first clearing house in Europe to accept gold as collateral. In February of this year JP Morgan became the first bank to accept gold bullion as collateral. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is now accepting gold as collateral for certain trades and the London-based clearing house LCH Clearnet has said it also plans to start accepting gold as collateral later this year subject to regulatory approval.

Of critical interest to the gold markets is the sight of Greek gold. Greece currently owns 111.5 tones of gold in its reserves [79.3% of its reserves] which can be taken out of its reach and into the hands of creditors. The sale of its government-owned assets to private hands under the pressure of distressed finances may well not achieve anywhere near their value. Would the Greek government pay the proceeds across to creditors immediately? Their gold has far more value than its current market price. 

But has it already been used as collateral in a Bank of International Settlement deal where it was swapped for foreign currencies? Last year the B.I.S. undertook many gold/currency swaps in mysterious, undisclosed situations. Were they tied to the bailouts? There will be no more devastating a blow to Greece’s financial credibility than a disclosure that the gold has already gone. It’s equivalent to the family jewels being sold off. And that is gold’s value, not its market price!

The current gold price is irrelevant to the repayment of debt. 111.5 tonnes is worth only $5.5 billion, which barely scratches the surface of Greece’s $350 billion debt. In a situation where monetary values are collapsing (the U.N. has just issued a report in which they state their fears of a U.S. dollar collapse) the gold price will leap to levels where national debt becomes relatively easy to repay and certainly worth all the promises a government can make at that time. Gold in extreme situations adds considerable credibility and value to any debt situations, way beyond its market price.

If the gold is there, then Greece would feel that it is the one asset which they can use when all credibility is lost. That’s why central banks hold so much gold in the first place! If Greece were to leave the Eurozone then Greece might have a chance, with their gold, to transition into a more prosperous country.”